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How to Evaluate a Fantasy Basketball Trade

Start with what your team needs

A trade is good for you if it makes your team better, not if it wins on some neutral value chart. Before looking at who is involved, decide what you are trying to fix. In a category league that means the categories you are losing and the ones you can realistically win. In a points league it usually means raising your total weekly production.

Count roster spots

Uneven trades are really three-way deals with the waiver wire. If you send two players and receive one, you gain an open roster spot, and that spot is filled by the best player you can pick up for free. If you receive two players for one, you have to drop someone. In both cases the right comparison is between the players in the trade plus the replacement-level player the extra spot is worth, not just the names.

Consolidation trades, where you swap two good players for one great one, are easier to justify when the waiver wire is deep, because the open spot is refilled with a useful player, and harder when it is thin. This is why the Trade Machine adds a waiver-wire filler player to the shorter side of an uneven deal.

Account for availability

A player's per-game numbers only matter on the nights he plays. Check injury history, recent minutes and any news before you trade for or away from someone. Two players with identical production are not equal if one is expected to miss more games.

Look at category effects

  • What does the trade do to each of your categories, not just the total? Moving a category from comfortably winning to very comfortably winning is worth little, while moving one from losing to winning is worth a lot.
  • Watch the percentages. Free throw and field goal percentage depend on volume, so a high-volume player can move them far more than a low-volume one, in either direction.
  • If you have punted a category, ignore it entirely when judging the trade.

Consider schedule and timing

Look at how many games each player has in the coming weeks, particularly through the fantasy playoffs, which in head-to-head leagues decide your season. Early in the season, be careful about trading on a small sample: a hot start is rarely a new baseline.

A quick checklist

  • Does this fix a real weakness, or just swap equal value?
  • How many roster spots does it open or close, and who fills them?
  • How many games should each player actually play?
  • Which categories move, and do any of them cross from losing to winning?
  • How does the schedule look through the playoffs?

Where the Trade Machine fits in

The Trade Machine lets you set up a trade between two sides, adds a replacement-level player where the player counts do not match, and shows the result for both sides, with an optional before-and-after view of each full team if you enter the rosters.

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