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ADP in Fantasy Basketball: What It Is and How to Use It

What ADP is

ADP stands for average draft position. It is the average pick number at which a player is taken across a large number of drafts. A player with an ADP of 12.4 typically goes somewhere around the end of the first round in a twelve-team league.

Because it blends a very large number of real decisions, ADP is a good picture of where the market values a player. It is not a ranking of who is best. It is a record of what people actually do.

What ADP is good for

  • Avoiding reaches. If a player you like has an ADP two rounds later than where you would pick him, you can probably wait.
  • Spotting value. When a player falls well past his ADP he is being discounted, and it is usually worth asking why.
  • Knowing the shape of the draft. Grouping players by ADP into rounds shows what a typical team has at each point, which is a useful yardstick for judging your own roster.

What ADP can't tell you

ADP ignores your roster, your league's scoring and what you have already drafted. It differs between platforms, because ESPN and Yahoo users draft differently, and it differs between formats: a player who piles up steals and blocks is worth more in many points leagues than in a category league where those stats count the same as everything else. ADP also reflects the news at the time it was recorded, so an injury or a role change can make it out of date overnight.

Deep in a draft, ADP also becomes less reliable. Few drafters have strong opinions about the last few roster spots, so players there are often bunched together and ordered almost arbitrarily.

Using ADP during the draft

Treat ADP as a guide to when players tend to go, not a schedule you have to follow. Think in tiers: if three players have similar value and similar ADP it matters little which you take first, but it matters a lot if one is likely to be gone before your next turn. Reach when you must, for a position or category you cannot fill later, and let ADP tell you how large a premium you are paying.

Using ADP after the draft

ADP is also useful as a yardstick. Comparing your roster with an average team shows whether you got more or less production than a typical drafter with the same picks. The Draft Companion compares your roster with an average team built from ADP as you draft, and the Post-Draft Analyzer grades a finished roster against a simulated average team for your league size.

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